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US Souf vs Ben Aknoun — Ligue 1 2018

US Souf
US Souf
FT
0 – 3
Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
3/2/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade El Oued OPOW

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

US Souf24%
×Draw22%
Ben Aknoun54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Souf
1.18
Ben Aknoun
1.90

Ben Aknoun creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

US Souf
1.13
Ben Aknoun
0.93

allows per match

US Souf
2.87
Ben Aknoun
1.23

finishing

US Souf+0.00on par
Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Souf ↓

Ben Aknoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

US Souf or draw
46%
US Souf or Ben Aknoun
78%
Draw or Ben Aknoun
76%

Winning margin

US Souf wins by 2+
9%
Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

US Souf 1+ goals
69%
US Souf 2+ goals
33%
US Souf 3+ goals
12%
Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
85%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
56%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

US Souf (draw refunded)
30%
Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Souf at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

Ben Aknoun away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Souf attack 1.13 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ben Aknoun attack 0.93 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

US Souf scores more
24%
level
22%
Ben Aknoun scores more
54%

Ben Aknoun at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: US Souf vs Ben Aknoun

Ben Aknoun beat US Souf 3-0 in Ligue 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Oued OPOW in El Oued.