Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ben Aknoun vs US Souf — Ligue 1 2018

Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
US Souf
US Souf
10/7/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ben Aknoun68%
×Draw19%
US Souf13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ben Aknoun
2.19
US Souf
0.82

Ben Aknoun creates 167% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ben Aknoun
1.50
US Souf
0.33

allows per match

Ben Aknoun
1.30
US Souf
2.87

finishing

Ben Aknoun+0.00on par
US Souf+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ben Aknoun ↓

US Souf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ben Aknoun or draw
87%
Ben Aknoun or US Souf
81%
Draw or US Souf
32%

Winning margin

Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
44%
US Souf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
89%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
64%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
37%
US Souf 1+ goals
56%
US Souf 2+ goals
20%
US Souf 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
84%
US Souf (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ben Aknoun at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

US Souf away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ben Aknoun attack 1.50 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

US Souf attack 0.33 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ben Aknoun scores more
68%
level
19%
US Souf scores more
13%

Ben Aknoun at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ben Aknoun vs US Souf

US Souf beat Ben Aknoun 1-0 in Ligue 1 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dar El Beïda in Algiers.