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US Oyem vs Mounana — Championnat D1 2022

US Oyem
US Oyem
FT
2 – 2
Mounana
Mounana
3/11/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 12Stade d'Akouakam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

US Oyem38%
×Draw30%
Mounana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Oyem
1.12
Mounana
1.01

US Oyem creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

US Oyem
1.13
Mounana
1.05

allows per match

US Oyem
0.97
Mounana
1.11

finishing

US Oyem+0.00on par
Mounana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Oyem ↓

Mounana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

US Oyem or draw
68%
US Oyem or Mounana
70%
Draw or Mounana
62%

Winning margin

US Oyem wins by 2+
16%
Mounana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

US Oyem 1+ goals
67%
US Oyem 2+ goals
31%
US Oyem 3+ goals
10%
Mounana 1+ goals
64%
Mounana 2+ goals
27%
Mounana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

US Oyem (draw refunded)
54%
Mounana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Oyem at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Mounana away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Oyem attack 1.13 + Mounana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mounana attack 1.05 + US Oyem defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

US Oyem scores more
38%
level
30%
Mounana scores more
32%

US Oyem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "US Oyem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: US Oyem 2–2 Mounana

US Oyem and Mounana drew 2-2 in Championnat D1 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Akouakam in Oyem.