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Mounana vs US Oyem — Championnat D1 2022

Mounana
Mounana
FT
1 – 2
US Oyem
US Oyem
4/26/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 21Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mounana44%
×Draw27%
US Oyem29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounana
1.37
US Oyem
1.05

Mounana creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mounana
1.10
US Oyem
0.91

allows per match

Mounana
1.20
US Oyem
1.64

finishing

Mounana+0.00on par
US Oyem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounana ↓

US Oyem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mounana or draw
71%
Mounana or US Oyem
73%
Draw or US Oyem
56%

Winning margin

Mounana wins by 2+
21%
US Oyem wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mounana 1+ goals
75%
Mounana 2+ goals
40%
Mounana 3+ goals
16%
US Oyem 1+ goals
65%
US Oyem 2+ goals
28%
US Oyem 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mounana (draw refunded)
61%
US Oyem (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

US Oyem away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounana attack 1.10 + US Oyem defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.37

US Oyem attack 0.91 + Mounana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mounana scores more
44%
level
27%
US Oyem scores more
29%

Mounana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mounana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mounana 1 – 2 US Oyem

US Oyem beat Mounana 2-1 in Championnat D1 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang in Libreville.