Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 SUD America: Result & Stats

Uruguay Montevideo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SUD America

11/19/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo40%

×Draw28%

SUD America32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uruguay MontevideoExpected goals in this matchSUD America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Uruguay Montevideo

1.25

SUD America

1.08

Uruguay Montevideo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

1.20

creates per match

0.96

1.20

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo

1.20

SUD America

0.96

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo

1.20

SUD America

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

SUD America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw

68%

Uruguay Montevideo or SUD America

72%

Draw or SUD America

60%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+

18%

SUD America wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals

71%

Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals

36%

Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals

13%

SUD America 1+ goals

66%

SUD America 2+ goals

29%

SUD America 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)

56%

SUD America (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

SUD America attack 0.96 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more

40%

level

28%

SUD America scores more

32%

Uruguay Montevideo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff