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SUD America vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2026

SUD America
SUD America
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
7/8/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 10Complejo Deportivo Rentistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SUD America34%
×Draw30%
Uruguay Montevideo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SUD America
1.05
Uruguay Montevideo
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

SUD America
1.03
Uruguay Montevideo
0.99

allows per match

SUD America
1.21
Uruguay Montevideo
1.07

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SUD America or draw
63%
SUD America or Uruguay Montevideo
70%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
66%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+
13%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals
65%
SUD America 2+ goals
28%
SUD America 3+ goals
9%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
67%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
30%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)
48%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + SUD America defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SUD America scores more
34%
level
30%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
37%

Uruguay Montevideo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: SUD America 0–1 Uruguay Montevideo

Uruguay Montevideo beat SUD America 1-0 in Segunda División on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas in Montevideo.