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Uruguay Montevideo vs Progreso — Segunda División 2026

Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Progreso
Progreso
12/3/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 26Parque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo29%
×Draw25%
Progreso46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay Montevideo
1.16
Progreso
1.54

Progreso creates 33% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Progreso
1.88

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Progreso
1.12

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par
Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

Progreso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw
54%
Uruguay Montevideo or Progreso
75%
Draw or Progreso
71%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
11%
Progreso wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
69%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
32%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
11%
Progreso 1+ goals
79%
Progreso 2+ goals
45%
Progreso 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
38%
Progreso (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Progreso attack 1.88 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more
29%
level
25%
Progreso scores more
46%

Progreso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Progreso

Progreso beat Uruguay Montevideo 3-1 in Segunda División on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Capurro in Montevideo.