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Progreso vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2026

Progreso
Progreso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
7/29/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 13Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Progreso50%
×Draw25%
Uruguay Montevideo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progreso
1.60
Uruguay Montevideo
1.06

Progreso creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Progreso
2.12
Uruguay Montevideo
0.99

allows per match

Progreso
1.12
Uruguay Montevideo
1.07

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Progreso or draw
75%
Progreso or Uruguay Montevideo
75%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
50%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+
26%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals
80%
Progreso 2+ goals
47%
Progreso 3+ goals
22%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
65%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
29%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)
66%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 2.12 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Progreso scores more
50%
level
25%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
25%

Progreso at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progreso vs Uruguay Montevideo

Uruguay Montevideo beat Progreso 2-1 in Segunda División on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.