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Uruguay Montevideo vs Potencia — Segunda División 2026

Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Potencia
Potencia
10/14/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 17Parque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo50%
×Draw28%
Potencia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay Montevideo
1.38
Potencia
0.82

Uruguay Montevideo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Potencia
0.44

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Potencia
1.56

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par
Potencia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

Potencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw
78%
Uruguay Montevideo or Potencia
72%
Draw or Potencia
50%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
24%
Potencia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
75%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
40%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
16%
Potencia 1+ goals
56%
Potencia 2+ goals
20%
Potencia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
69%
Potencia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Potencia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Potencia attack 0.44 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more
50%
level
28%
Potencia scores more
22%

Uruguay Montevideo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Uruguay Montevideo 1–0 Potencia

Uruguay Montevideo beat Potencia 1-0 in Segunda División on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Capurro in Montevideo.