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Potencia vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2026

Potencia
Potencia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
5/27/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Potencia31%
×Draw28%
Uruguay Montevideo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potencia
1.06
Uruguay Montevideo
1.27

Uruguay Montevideo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 71 away

creates per match

Potencia
1.06
Uruguay Montevideo
0.99

allows per match

Potencia
1.56
Uruguay Montevideo
1.07

finishing

Potencia+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potencia ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Potencia or draw
59%
Potencia or Uruguay Montevideo
72%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
69%

Winning margin

Potencia wins by 2+
12%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Potencia 1+ goals
65%
Potencia 2+ goals
29%
Potencia 3+ goals
9%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
72%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
36%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Potencia (draw refunded)
43%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potencia at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potencia attack 1.06 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + Potencia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Potencia scores more
31%
level
28%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
41%

Uruguay Montevideo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Potencia vs Uruguay Montevideo

Uruguay Montevideo beat Potencia 1-0 in Segunda División on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.