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Uruguay Montevideo vs Juventud — Segunda División 2026

Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud
Juventud
12/12/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Play-offs - FinalParque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo36%
×Draw28%
Juventud36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay Montevideo
1.19
Juventud
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Juventud
1.18

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Juventud
1.18

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par
Juventud+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

Juventud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw
64%
Uruguay Montevideo or Juventud
72%
Draw or Juventud
64%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
15%
Juventud wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
70%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
33%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
12%
Juventud 1+ goals
70%
Juventud 2+ goals
33%
Juventud 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
50%
Juventud (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Juventud away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + Juventud defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Juventud attack 1.18 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more
36%
level
28%
Juventud scores more
36%

Uruguay Montevideo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Juventud

Uruguay Montevideo and Juventud drew 1-1 in Segunda División on December 12, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Capurro in Montevideo.