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Juventud vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2026

Juventud
Juventud
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
8/17/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 15Estadio Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Juventud42%
×Draw29%
Uruguay Montevideo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud
1.21
Uruguay Montevideo
0.93

Juventud creates 30% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 71 away

creates per match

Juventud
1.34
Uruguay Montevideo
0.99

allows per match

Juventud
0.86
Uruguay Montevideo
1.07

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juventud or draw
72%
Juventud or Uruguay Montevideo
71%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
58%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+
19%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals
70%
Juventud 2+ goals
34%
Juventud 3+ goals
12%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
61%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
24%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)
60%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 1.34 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + Juventud defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventud scores more
42%
level
29%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
28%

Juventud at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Juventud 0–1 Uruguay Montevideo

Uruguay Montevideo beat Juventud 1-0 in Segunda División on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Parque Artigas in Paysandú.