Uruguay Montevideo 1–4 Artigas: Result & Stats

Uruguay Montevideo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Artigas

E. Vidart 35'

Unknown 83', 70', 59'

N. Leites 21'

9/7/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 19Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo36%

×Draw26%

Artigas38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uruguay MontevideoExpected goals in this matchArtigas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.36

Uruguay Montevideo

1.31

Artigas

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

1.20

1.52

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo

1.08

Artigas

1.20

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo

1.52

Artigas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

Artigas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw

62%

Uruguay Montevideo or Artigas

74%

Draw or Artigas

64%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+

16%

Artigas wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals

73%

Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals

38%

Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals

14%

Artigas 1+ goals

74%

Artigas 2+ goals

39%

Artigas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)

48%

Artigas (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.08 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Artigas attack 1.20 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more

36%

level

26%

Artigas scores more

38%

Artigas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Artigas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

N. Leites

35'

E. Vidart

59'

70'

74'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff