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Artigas vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2025

Artigas
Artigas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
O. Pereira 22'
F. Borges 72'
6/14/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas33%
×Draw27%
Uruguay Montevideo40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artigas
1.20
Uruguay Montevideo
1.34

Uruguay Montevideo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Artigas
1.13
Uruguay Montevideo
0.81

allows per match

Artigas
1.88
Uruguay Montevideo
1.27

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Artigas or draw
60%
Artigas or Uruguay Montevideo
73%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
67%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+
14%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals
70%
Artigas 2+ goals
34%
Artigas 3+ goals
12%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
74%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
39%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)
45%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.81 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Artigas scores more
33%
level
27%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
40%

Uruguay Montevideo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
O. Pereira
72'
F. Borges
Artigas
Uruguay
C. Bueno
Manager: C. Bueno
L. Medina
Manager: L. Medina

Match Recap: Artigas vs Uruguay Montevideo

Artigas and Uruguay Montevideo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on June 14, 2025.

Goals: O. Pereira (22'), F. Borges (72').

The match was played at Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera in Rivera.