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Uruguay Montevideo vs Albion FC — Segunda División 2026

Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Albion FC
Albion FC
7/28/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 13Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Uruguay Montevideo36%
×Draw28%
Albion FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uruguay Montevideo
1.16
Albion FC
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 95 away

creates per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Albion FC
1.12

allows per match

Uruguay Montevideo
1.20
Albion FC
1.11

finishing

Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par
Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uruguay Montevideo ↓

Albion FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Uruguay Montevideo or draw
64%
Uruguay Montevideo or Albion FC
72%
Draw or Albion FC
64%

Winning margin

Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
15%
Albion FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
69%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
32%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
11%
Albion FC 1+ goals
69%
Albion FC 2+ goals
32%
Albion FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
50%
Albion FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uruguay Montevideo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.11 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uruguay Montevideo attack 1.20 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Albion FC attack 1.12 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Uruguay Montevideo scores more
36%
level
28%
Albion FC scores more
36%

Uruguay Montevideo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Uruguay Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uruguay Montevideo vs Albion FC

Uruguay Montevideo beat Albion FC 2-0 in Segunda División on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.