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Albion FC vs Uruguay Montevideo — Segunda División 2026

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo
8/29/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Albion FC39%
×Draw29%
Uruguay Montevideo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.15
Uruguay Montevideo
1.02

Albion FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 71 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.23
Uruguay Montevideo
0.99

allows per match

Albion FC
1.05
Uruguay Montevideo
1.07

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Uruguay Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Uruguay Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
68%
Albion FC or Uruguay Montevideo
71%
Draw or Uruguay Montevideo
61%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
16%
Uruguay Montevideo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
68%
Albion FC 2+ goals
32%
Albion FC 3+ goals
11%
Uruguay Montevideo 1+ goals
64%
Uruguay Montevideo 2+ goals
27%
Uruguay Montevideo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
55%
Uruguay Montevideo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Uruguay Montevideo away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.23 + Uruguay Montevideo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Uruguay Montevideo attack 0.99 + Albion FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albion FC scores more
39%
level
29%
Uruguay Montevideo scores more
32%

Albion FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion FC vs Uruguay Montevideo

Uruguay Montevideo beat Albion FC 1-0 in Segunda División on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Franzini in Montevideo.