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Ursus Warszawa vs Sokół Ostróda — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
6/17/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ursus Warszawa42%
×Draw24%
Sokół Ostróda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.65
Sokół Ostróda
1.46

Ursus Warszawa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Sokół Ostróda
1.12

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Sokół Ostróda
1.82

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
66%
Ursus Warszawa or Sokół Ostróda
76%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
58%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
22%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
81%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
49%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
77%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
43%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
55%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.12 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
42%
level
24%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
34%

Ursus Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ursus Warszawa vs Sokół Ostróda

Sokół Ostróda beat Ursus Warszawa 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.