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Sokół Ostróda vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
11/19/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda36%
×Draw22%
Ursus Warszawa42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.71
Ursus Warszawa
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.76
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
2.35
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
58%
Sokół Ostróda or Ursus Warszawa
78%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
64%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
18%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
51%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
24%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
84%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
55%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
46%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
36%
level
22%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
42%

Ursus Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Ostróda vs Ursus Warszawa

Sokół Ostróda beat Ursus Warszawa 4-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.