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Ursus Warszawa vs Radomsko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
3 – 1
Radomsko
Radomsko
11/21/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ursus Warszawa38%
×Draw24%
Radomsko38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.57
Radomsko
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Radomsko
1.33

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Radomsko
1.67

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Radomsko+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Radomsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
62%
Ursus Warszawa or Radomsko
76%
Draw or Radomsko
62%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
19%
Radomsko wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
79%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
46%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
21%
Radomsko 1+ goals
79%
Radomsko 2+ goals
46%
Radomsko 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
50%
Radomsko (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Radomsko away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Radomsko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Radomsko attack 1.33 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
38%
level
24%
Radomsko scores more
38%

Ursus Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ursus Warszawa 3–1 Radomsko

Ursus Warszawa beat Radomsko 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.