Radomsko 1–2 Ursus Warszawa: Result & Stats

Radomsko

FT

1 – 2

Ursus Warszawa

4/3/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radomsko45%

×Draw24%

Ursus Warszawa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadomskoExpected goals in this matchUrsus Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.35

Radomsko

1.65

Ursus Warszawa

1.35

Radomsko creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

1.63

creates per match

1.38

1.32

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Radomsko

1.63

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

allows per match

Radomsko

1.32

Ursus Warszawa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Ursus Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw

69%

Radomsko or Ursus Warszawa

76%

Draw or Ursus Warszawa

55%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+

23%

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals

81%

Radomsko 2+ goals

49%

Radomsko 3+ goals

23%

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

74%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

39%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)

59%

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radomsko scores more

45%

level

24%

Ursus Warszawa scores more

31%

Radomsko at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff