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Ursus Warszawa vs Polonia Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
0 – 2
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
9/4/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ursus Warszawa28%
×Draw24%
Polonia Warszawa48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.27
Polonia Warszawa
1.72

Polonia Warszawa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.64

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Polonia Warszawa
1.06

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
52%
Ursus Warszawa or Polonia Warszawa
76%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
72%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
12%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
72%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
36%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
14%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
82%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
51%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
37%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.64 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
28%
level
24%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
48%

Polonia Warszawa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ursus Warszawa 0–2 Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Ursus Warszawa 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.