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Polonia Warszawa vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 1
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
9/12/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Warszawa59%
×Draw21%
Ursus Warszawa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.03
Ursus Warszawa
1.09

Polonia Warszawa creates 86% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
80%
Polonia Warszawa or Ursus Warszawa
79%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
41%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
35%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
60%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
33%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
66%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
30%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
75%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.03

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
59%
level
21%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
20%

Polonia Warszawa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Ursus Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Ursus Warszawa 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.