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Ursus Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
10/29/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa27%
×Draw22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.97

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
49%
Ursus Warszawa or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
78%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
73%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
12%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
40%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
16%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
86%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
58%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
35%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
27%
level
22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
51%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ursus Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Ursus Warszawa 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.