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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
5/28/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki62%
×Draw20%
Ursus Warszawa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.21
Ursus Warszawa
1.09

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 103% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.75
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.81
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
82%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Ursus Warszawa
80%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
38%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
39%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
89%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
65%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
38%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
66%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
30%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
78%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.21

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
62%
level
20%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
18%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Ursus Warszawa

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Ursus Warszawa drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.