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Ursus Warszawa vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
3 – 1
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
4/15/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa49%
×Draw22%
Pilica Białobrzegi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.96
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.46

Ursus Warszawa creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
71%
Ursus Warszawa or Pilica Białobrzegi
78%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
51%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
28%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
86%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
58%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
31%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
77%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
43%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
63%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
49%
level
22%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
29%

Ursus Warszawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ursus Warszawa 3–1 Pilica Białobrzegi

Ursus Warszawa beat Pilica Białobrzegi 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.