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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
0 – 0
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
9/10/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi39%
×Draw24%
Ursus Warszawa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.60
Ursus Warszawa
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
63%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Ursus Warszawa
76%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
61%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
20%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
80%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
47%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
22%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
79%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
45%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
52%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
39%
level
24%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
37%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pilica Białobrzegi 0–0 Ursus Warszawa

Pilica Białobrzegi and Ursus Warszawa drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.