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Ursus Warszawa vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
10/15/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa34%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursus Warszawa
1.55
Legionovia Legionowo
1.75

Legionovia Legionowo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.47
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa
1.80
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw
57%
Ursus Warszawa or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
66%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
16%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
79%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
46%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
20%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
83%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
52%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
45%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more
34%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
43%

Legionovia Legionowo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Ursus Warszawa 1–3 Legionovia Legionowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Ursus Warszawa 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Warszawa.