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Legionovia Legionowo vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
1 – 1
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
9/6/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo49%
×Draw23%
Ursus Warszawa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.83
Ursus Warszawa
1.32

Legionovia Legionowo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
72%
Legionovia Legionowo or Ursus Warszawa
77%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
51%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
27%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
84%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
54%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
28%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
73%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
38%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
64%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
49%
level
23%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
28%

Legionovia Legionowo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legionovia Legionowo 1 – 1 Ursus Warszawa

Legionovia Legionowo and Ursus Warszawa drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.