Ursus Warszawa 2–2 ŁKS Łódź II: Result & Stats

Ursus Warszawa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ŁKS Łódź II

10/1/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursus Warszawa31%

×Draw23%

ŁKS Łódź II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ursus WarszawaExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.73

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

ŁKS Łódź II

1.73

ŁKS Łódź II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

1.47

creates per match

1.66

1.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.47

ŁKS Łódź II

1.66

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.80

ŁKS Łódź II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw

54%

Ursus Warszawa or ŁKS Łódź II

77%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź II

69%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

14%

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

75%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

40%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

16%

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals

82%

ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals

52%

ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

40%

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.66 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more

31%

level

23%

ŁKS Łódź II scores more

46%

ŁKS Łódź II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff