ŁKS Łódź II 4–3 Ursus Warszawa: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź II

FT

4 – 3

Ursus Warszawa

8/7/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Akademia ŁKS Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II51%

×Draw22%

Ursus Warszawa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS Łódź IIExpected goals in this matchUrsus Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.38

ŁKS Łódź II

1.98

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

ŁKS Łódź II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

2.31

creates per match

1.38

1.37

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II

2.31

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II

1.37

Ursus Warszawa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Ursus Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw

73%

ŁKS Łódź II or Ursus Warszawa

78%

Draw or Ursus Warszawa

49%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+

30%

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals

86%

ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals

59%

ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals

31%

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

75%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

40%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)

66%

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 2.31 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more

51%

level

22%

Ursus Warszawa scores more

27%

ŁKS Łódź II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff