Ursus Warszawa 2–3 Jagiellonia II: Result & Stats

Ursus Warszawa

FT

2 – 3

Jagiellonia II

9/11/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa37%

×Draw23%

Jagiellonia II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ursus WarszawaExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.64

Ursus Warszawa

1.57

Jagiellonia II

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

1.47

creates per match

1.48

1.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.47

Jagiellonia II

1.48

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.80

Jagiellonia II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Jagiellonia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw

60%

Ursus Warszawa or Jagiellonia II

77%

Draw or Jagiellonia II

63%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

18%

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

79%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

46%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

21%

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

81%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

49%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

48%

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more

37%

level

23%

Jagiellonia II scores more

40%

Jagiellonia II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff