Jagiellonia II 2–2 Ursus Warszawa: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia II

FT

2 – 2

Ursus Warszawa

12/5/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jagiellonia II44%

×Draw23%

Ursus Warszawa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia IIExpected goals in this matchUrsus Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.46

Jagiellonia II

1.71

Ursus Warszawa

1.46

Jagiellonia II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 53 away

1.76

creates per match

1.38

1.53

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Jagiellonia II

1.76

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

allows per match

Jagiellonia II

1.53

Ursus Warszawa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Ursus Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw

67%

Jagiellonia II or Ursus Warszawa

77%

Draw or Ursus Warszawa

56%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

23%

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

82%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

51%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

24%

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

77%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

43%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

57%

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more

44%

level

23%

Ursus Warszawa scores more

33%

Jagiellonia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff