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Ursaria vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Ursaria
Ursaria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
2/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ursaria65%
×Draw23%
Colonia Moscardó12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ursaria
1.72
Colonia Moscardó
0.59

Ursaria creates 192% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ursaria
1.74
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Ursaria
0.49
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Ursaria+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursaria ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ursaria or draw
88%
Ursaria or Colonia Moscardó
77%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
35%

Winning margin

Ursaria wins by 2+
37%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ursaria 1+ goals
82%
Ursaria 2+ goals
51%
Ursaria 3+ goals
25%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
45%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
12%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ursaria (draw refunded)
84%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursaria at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.49 · 35 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursaria attack 1.74 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.72

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Ursaria defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ursaria scores more
65%
level
23%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
12%

Ursaria at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Ursaria 3–1 Colonia Moscardó

Ursaria beat Colonia Moscardó 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo la Dehesa in Madrid.