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Colonia Moscardó vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Colonia Moscardó25%
×Draw25%
Ursaria50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.02
Ursaria
1.55

Ursaria creates 52% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
50%
Colonia Moscardó or Ursaria
75%
Draw or Ursaria
75%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
9%
Ursaria wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
64%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
27%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
8%
Ursaria 1+ goals
79%
Ursaria 2+ goals
46%
Ursaria 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
33%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
25%
level
25%
Ursaria scores more
50%

Ursaria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Colonia Moscardó 0–3 Ursaria

Ursaria beat Colonia Moscardó 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.