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Urraca vs Real Avilés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Urraca
Urraca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Urraca37%
×Draw29%
Real Avilés34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urraca
1.16
Real Avilés
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 28 away

creates per match

Urraca
1.03
Real Avilés
1.18

allows per match

Urraca
1.03
Real Avilés
1.29

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Urraca or draw
66%
Urraca or Real Avilés
71%
Draw or Real Avilés
63%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+
15%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals
69%
Urraca 2+ goals
32%
Urraca 3+ goals
11%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
67%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
30%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)
52%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Urraca scores more
37%
level
29%
Real Avilés scores more
34%

Urraca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urraca vs Real Avilés

Urraca and Real Avilés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de La Corredoria in Posada de Llanes.