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Real Avilés vs Urraca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
CANC
00:00
Urraca
Urraca
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés43%
×Draw27%
Urraca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.33
Urraca
1.06

Real Avilés creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 79 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.54
Urraca
0.86

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.27
Urraca
1.13

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Urraca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Urraca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
70%
Real Avilés or Urraca
73%
Draw or Urraca
57%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
20%
Urraca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
74%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
38%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
15%
Urraca 1+ goals
65%
Urraca 2+ goals
29%
Urraca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
59%
Urraca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Urraca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + Urraca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Urraca attack 0.86 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Avilés scores more
43%
level
27%
Urraca scores more
30%

Real Avilés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Avilés host Urraca

March 15, 2020: Real Avilés take on Urraca in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Avilés host Urraca at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.