Urozhay 0–5 Spartak Kostroma: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Spartak Kostroma

M. Chikanchi 80', 78'

K. Chursin 55'

V. Demyanov 22'

I. Rubtsov 4'

2/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Urozhay32%

×Draw22%

Spartak Kostroma46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.91

Urozhay

1.56

Spartak Kostroma

1.91

Spartak Kostroma creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

1.57

2.25

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Urozhay

1.25

Spartak Kostroma

1.57

allows per match

Urozhay

2.25

Spartak Kostroma

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

54%

Urozhay or Spartak Kostroma

78%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

68%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

15%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

79%

Urozhay 2+ goals

46%

Urozhay 3+ goals

21%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

85%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

57%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

41%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 1.25 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.57 + Urozhay defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urozhay scores more

32%

level

22%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

46%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

22'

55'

78'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff