Spartak Kostroma 3–1 Urozhay: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Urozhay

K. Korolkov 45+1'

M. Chikanchi 41'

D. Zhilmostnykh 9'

B. Reykhmen 82'

9/8/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 8Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Kostroma45%

×Draw28%

Urozhay27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Spartak Kostroma

1.33

Urozhay

0.97

Spartak Kostroma creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.94

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.33

Urozhay

1.00

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

0.94

Urozhay

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

73%

Spartak Kostroma or Urozhay

72%

Draw or Urozhay

55%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

21%

Urozhay wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

38%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

15%

Urozhay 1+ goals

62%

Urozhay 2+ goals

25%

Urozhay 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

62%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.33 + Urozhay defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Urozhay attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

45%

level

28%

Urozhay scores more

27%

Spartak Kostroma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

29'

29'

39'

41'

45'

45+1'

54'

63'

63'

63'

V. Demyanov← A. Seraskhov

63'

N. Bakalyuk← G. Makhatadze

63'

E. Kravchuk← I. Moseychuk

75'

A. Dryaev← A. Egurnev

80'

S. Bugriev

82'

B. Reykhmen

83'

N. Supranovich← A. Nemchenko

83'

A. Saplinov← K. Korolkov

90+5'

E. Shalimov← I. Bezdenezhnykh

Spartak

Urozhay

1

Nesterenk

19

Osipov

96

Smirnov

6

▼

Zhilov

37

Vedeneev

7

Sharipov

87

▼

Bezdenezh

8

▼

Makhatadz

9

⚽

Reykhmen

17

▼

Moseychuk

90

Gaynov

68

Gaydash

11

▼

Seraskhov

3

Bugriev

5

⚽

Zhilmostn

91

Kulikov

78

Kiselev

22

▼

Nemchenko

10

⚽

▼

Korolkov

7

▼

Egurnev

69

▼

Chursin

23

⚽

Chikanchi

Manager: S. Bondar

63'▲D. Sadov←▼K. Chursin

63'▲V. Demyanov←▼A. Seraskhov

75'▲A. Dryaev←▼A. Egurnev

83'▲N. Supranovich←▼A. Nemchenko

83'▲A. Saplinov←▼K. Korolkov

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

8Sadov56Demyanov9Dryaev4Supranovich55Saplinov18Ignatyev19Larin40Genchu47Kotov50Fayzullin99Terekhov

Manager: V. Molchanov

29'▲A. Solop←▼I. Zhilov

63'▲N. Bakalyuk←▼G. Makhatadze

63'▲E. Kravchuk←▼I. Moseychuk

90+5'▲E. Shalimov←▼I. Bezdenezhnykh

Urozhay substitutes

18Solop22Bakalyuk78Kravchuk21Shalimov24Ternovskiy