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Urozhay vs Kuban Kholding — Cup 2019

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
8/21/2024CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Urozhay15%
×Draw18%
Kuban Kholding67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.05
Kuban Kholding
2.40

Kuban Kholding creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Urozhay
1.20
Kuban Kholding
2.00

allows per match

Urozhay
2.80
Kuban Kholding
0.90

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
33%
Urozhay or Kuban Kholding
82%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
85%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
5%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
65%
Urozhay 2+ goals
28%
Urozhay 3+ goals
9%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
91%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
69%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
18%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 1.20 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Kuban Kholding attack 2.00 + Urozhay defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Urozhay scores more
15%
level
18%
Kuban Kholding scores more
67%

Kuban Kholding at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Urozhay 0–5 Kuban Kholding

Kuban Kholding beat Urozhay 5-0 in Cup on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.