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Kuban Kholding vs Urozhay — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
4/15/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kuban Kholding27%
×Draw24%
Urozhay49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.16
Urozhay
1.66

Urozhay creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Urozhay
2.44

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Urozhay
0.69

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
51%
Kuban Kholding or Urozhay
76%
Draw or Urozhay
73%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
11%
Urozhay wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
69%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
32%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
11%
Urozhay 1+ goals
81%
Urozhay 2+ goals
49%
Urozhay 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
35%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Urozhay away — creates 2.44, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.16

Urozhay attack 2.44 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
27%
level
24%
Urozhay scores more
49%

Urozhay at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 1–1 Urozhay

Kuban Kholding and Urozhay drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on April 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.