Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urozhay vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
10/13/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 13Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Urozhay46%
×Draw26%
Kaluga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.45
Kaluga
1.08

Urozhay creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Urozhay
1.33
Kaluga
0.83

allows per match

Urozhay
1.33
Kaluga
1.56

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
72%
Urozhay or Kaluga
74%
Draw or Kaluga
54%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
22%
Kaluga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
77%
Urozhay 2+ goals
42%
Urozhay 3+ goals
18%
Kaluga 1+ goals
66%
Kaluga 2+ goals
29%
Kaluga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
62%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 1.33 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kaluga attack 0.83 + Urozhay defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urozhay scores more
46%
level
26%
Kaluga scores more
28%

Urozhay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Urozhay 2–0 Kaluga

Urozhay beat Kaluga 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.