Kaluga 3–1 Urozhay: Result & Stats

Kaluga

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Urozhay

10/11/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 13Orbita stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kaluga58%

×Draw22%

Urozhay20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KalugaExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.04

Kaluga

1.94

Urozhay

1.04

Kaluga creates 87% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

2.14

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Kaluga

2.14

Urozhay

1.07

allows per match

Kaluga

1.00

Urozhay

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw

80%

Kaluga or Urozhay

78%

Draw or Urozhay

42%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+

34%

Urozhay wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals

86%

Kaluga 2+ goals

58%

Kaluga 3+ goals

30%

Urozhay 1+ goals

65%

Urozhay 2+ goals

28%

Urozhay 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)

74%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Urozhay defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Urozhay attack 1.07 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kaluga scores more

58%

level

22%

Urozhay scores more

20%

Kaluga at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff