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Urozhay vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Essentuki
Essentuki
4/20/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay86%
×Draw10%
Essentuki4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
3.05
Essentuki
0.52

Urozhay creates 487% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

Urozhay
3.06
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

Urozhay
0.69
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
96%
Urozhay or Essentuki
90%
Draw or Essentuki
14%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
68%
Essentuki wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
95%
Urozhay 2+ goals
80%
Urozhay 3+ goals
57%
Essentuki 1+ goals
41%
Essentuki 2+ goals
10%
Essentuki 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
96%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 3.06 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 3.05

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Urozhay scores more
86%
level
10%
Essentuki scores more
4%

Urozhay at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Urozhay 4–0 Essentuki

Urozhay beat Essentuki 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.