Essentuki 1–5 Urozhay: Result & Stats

Essentuki

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Urozhay

10/4/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Essentuki7%

×Draw13%

Urozhay79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EssentukiExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.75

Essentuki

0.73

Urozhay

2.75

Urozhay creates 277% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

0.77

creates per match

2.44

3.05

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Essentuki

0.77

Urozhay

2.44

allows per match

Essentuki

3.05

Urozhay

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Essentuki+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essentuki ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Essentuki or draw

21%

Essentuki or Urozhay

87%

Draw or Urozhay

93%

Winning margin

Essentuki wins by 2+

2%

Urozhay wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Essentuki 1+ goals

52%

Essentuki 2+ goals

17%

Essentuki 3+ goals

4%

Urozhay 1+ goals

93%

Urozhay 2+ goals

75%

Urozhay 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Essentuki (draw refunded)

9%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essentuki at home — creates 0.77, concedes 3.05 · 43 matches

Urozhay away — creates 2.44, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essentuki attack 0.77 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Urozhay attack 2.44 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Essentuki scores more

7%

level

13%

Urozhay scores more

79%

Urozhay at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff