Urozhay 1–0 Chernomorets: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chernomorets

5/4/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urozhay53%

×Draw22%

Chernomorets25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchChernomorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.30

Urozhay

1.96

Chernomorets

1.30

Urozhay creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

3.06

creates per match

1.91

0.69

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Urozhay

3.06

Chernomorets

1.91

allows per match

Urozhay

0.69

Chernomorets

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Chernomorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

75%

Urozhay or Chernomorets

78%

Draw or Chernomorets

47%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

30%

Chernomorets wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

86%

Urozhay 2+ goals

58%

Urozhay 3+ goals

31%

Chernomorets 1+ goals

73%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

37%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

67%

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 3.06 + Chernomorets defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.96

Chernomorets attack 1.91 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Urozhay scores more

53%

level

22%

Chernomorets scores more

25%

Urozhay at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff