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Chernomorets vs Urozhay — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
10/18/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chernomorets36%
×Draw24%
Urozhay40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
1.45
Urozhay
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.21
Urozhay
2.44

allows per match

Chernomorets
0.66
Urozhay
0.69

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
60%
Chernomorets or Urozhay
76%
Draw or Urozhay
64%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
17%
Urozhay wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
77%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
42%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
18%
Urozhay 1+ goals
79%
Urozhay 2+ goals
46%
Urozhay 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
47%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Urozhay away — creates 2.44, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + Urozhay defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Urozhay attack 2.44 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chernomorets scores more
36%
level
24%
Urozhay scores more
40%

Urozhay at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Chernomorets 1–2 Urozhay

Urozhay beat Chernomorets 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.