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Urozhay vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
9/19/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Urozhay35%
×Draw30%
Arsenal Tula36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.06
Arsenal Tula
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.98
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Urozhay
1.23
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
64%
Urozhay or Arsenal Tula
70%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
65%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
14%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
65%
Urozhay 2+ goals
29%
Urozhay 3+ goals
9%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
66%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
29%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
49%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Urozhay scores more
35%
level
30%
Arsenal Tula scores more
36%

Arsenal Tula at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urozhay vs Arsenal Tula

Urozhay beat Arsenal Tula 2-1 in First League on September 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.