Arsenal Tula 1–2 Urozhay: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Urozhay

4/8/2023

First League · Round 26Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Arsenal Tula45%

×Draw28%

Urozhay27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Arsenal Tula

1.31

Urozhay

0.96

Arsenal Tula creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

1.17

creates per match

0.92

0.99

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.17

Urozhay

0.92

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.99

Urozhay

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

73%

Arsenal Tula or Urozhay

72%

Draw or Urozhay

55%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

21%

Urozhay wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

73%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

38%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

14%

Urozhay 1+ goals

62%

Urozhay 2+ goals

25%

Urozhay 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

62%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Urozhay away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Urozhay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Urozhay attack 0.92 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

45%

level

28%

Urozhay scores more

27%

Arsenal Tula at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff