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Urozhay vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3/7/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 2Kuban Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Urozhay42%
×Draw29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.25
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.98

Urozhay creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.94
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

allows per match

Urozhay
0.63
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
71%
Urozhay or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
71%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
58%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
71%
Urozhay 2+ goals
36%
Urozhay 3+ goals
13%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
62%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
59%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.94 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Urozhay defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Urozhay scores more
42%
level
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
29%

Urozhay at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urozhay vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Urozhay and Alaniya Vladikavkaz drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Kuban Stadium in Krasnodar.