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Urozhay vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Urozhay
Urozhay
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
I. Mashukov 11'
8/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Urozhay34%
×Draw28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urozhay
1.16
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Urozhay
0.98
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

allows per match

Urozhay
1.23
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw
62%
Urozhay or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
72%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
66%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+
14%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals
69%
Urozhay 2+ goals
32%
Urozhay 3+ goals
11%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
71%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
35%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)
48%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Urozhay scores more
34%
level
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
38%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
I. Mashukov
45'
Nikolay Giorgobiani
46'
V. Chuperka← M. Lauk
63'
B. Gurtsiev← V. Tsarukyan
63'
A. Butaev← A. Khabalov
63'
A. Tsaraev← A. Chochiev
65'
A. Mutaliev← O. Kenfack
81'
A. Zaseev← I. Mashukov
81'
S. Melnikov← Z. Tarba
83'
Soslan Takazov

Statistics

UrozhayAlaniya
Overview
6Corners5
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

First League: Urozhay 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Urozhay 1-0 in First League on August 26, 2023.

Goals: I. Mashukov (11').

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.